Hindsight Neglect
Only in system cards
Models judge whether a bet was worth taking based on expected value rather than its outcome. Scoring is accuracy.
Inverse Scaling Prize task where accuracy fell with scale for earlier models.
Made by Inverse Scaling Prize Language reasoning All tasks public Last in a system card Mar 2023
Last model added Mar 2023
- Level
- Everyday Most adults, without training
- Scored
- Checked automatically A program checks the result against an answer key, unit tests or the expected final state.
- Answers
- Multiple choice
1
System card reports it, from 1 lab
No scores here yet
No lab, leaderboard or Epoch AI run has reported a score for Hindsight Neglect yet.
Labs report it only in system cards
We read the headline results of 479 launch posts from 51 labs, and none of them list this benchmark. Some system cards do, below.
One system card reports it
Besides launch posts, we read the system cards, model cards and technical reports labs publish with a release. They report far more, including safety and frontier-risk tests.
| Date | Document | Score | As the document writes it | Section |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2023 | GPT-4 technical report | Inverse scaling prize, hindsight neglect, accuracy, chart without printed numbers (Figure 3) | Capabilities |
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