Harmful manipulation efficacy study
Gemini 3.1 Pro 3.60 Only in system cards Human participants chat with a model told to persuade them. Belief and behavior change are compared with a non-AI baseline as odds ratios.
In-house Google DeepMind human study run on Prolific. Reports often show only charts.
Made by Google DeepMind Released Nov 2025 Dangerous capabilities Tasks kept private Last in a system card Oct 2026
Last model added Oct 2026
- Level
- Everyday Most adults, without training
- Scored
- Settled by events Predictions are scored against what later happens.
- Answers
- Open-ended Free-form text, documents, designs or media judged as a whole.
1
Model scored in lab cards
6
System cards report it, from 1 lab
Gemini 3.1 Pro leads with 3.60
Best score per model as labs report them in their own cards. Labs pick their own settings, so these compare less cleanly than independent runs.
- 1 Gemini 3.1 Pro 3.60
| # | Model | Score | Setting | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gemini 3.1 Pro | 3.60 | Feb 2026 | Model card |
Scores over time
All the scores we have, one dot each, so a model tested at several settings appears more than once.
Reported by the lab in its model card
Labs report it only in system cards
We read the headline results of 479 launch posts from 51 labs, and none of them list this benchmark. Some system cards do, below.
6 system cards report it, from 1 lab
Besides launch posts, we read the system cards, model cards and technical reports labs publish with a release. They report far more, including safety and frontier-risk tests.
| Date | Document | Score | As the document writes it | Section |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Gemini 4 Argon system card | Human behavioral efficacy study, odds ratios vs non-AI flashcard baseline, 16 metrics with no overall (Model A checkpoint). Civic US: strengthening 2.52, flip 2.34, petition 1.56, donation 1.42. Civic UK: 2.60, 2.17, 1.39, 1.90. Financial US: 7.10, 5.01, advice 1.49, investment 1.87. Financial UK: 10.38, 7.51, 1.55, 1.93 (Figures 3.5 to 3.8) | Persuasion | |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Gemini 4 Argon model card | Harmful Manipulation human behavioral studies: some ability to influence beliefs and behaviors, CCL not reached, no score (Frontier Safety table, p.12) | Persuasion | |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Gemini 3.7 Flash model card | Harmful Manipulation human behavioural studies: efficacy below the CCL alert threshold, no score (Frontier Safety table, p.8 to 9) | Persuasion | |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Gemini 3.7 Flash system card | Human behavioral efficacy study, odds ratios vs flashcard baseline, no overall value. Civic: strengthening belief 1.93, sentiment flip 2.62, petition-signing 1.31, donation 1.87. Financial: 7.74, 6.00, 1.02, 1.83 (Figures 2 and 3) | Persuasion | |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Gemini 3.1 Pro model card | 3.6 | Harmful Manipulation efficacy (Deep Think mode): maximum odds ratio 3.6x on belief change metrics vs non-AI baseline (FSF results table, p.8) | Persuasion |
| 18 Nov 2025 | Gemini 3 Pro system card | Efficacy evaluation, odds ratios vs non-AI baseline, no overall value: significant shift in belief 3.44, sentiment flip 3.57, petition-signing 1.34, donation 1.05 (Figure 3) | Persuasion |
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