BTF-3
Agents forecast already-resolved binary and numeric questions while researching a frozen snapshot of the web. Scoring pools Brier and ranked probability scores.
BTF-3 adds numeric questions scored by ranked probability score next to binary ones. The question set keeps growing, from 1,783 questions on the dataset card to 2,386 on FutureSearch's page.
- Level
- Expert Specialists with years of training, often over hours of work
- Scored
- Settled by events Predictions are scored against what later happens.
- Answers
- Prediction Probabilities for events that have not happened yet.
Claude Opus 5 leads with 0.12 among models released by Sep 2026
Best score per model in Epoch AI’s data. Where a model ran with several settings or harnesses, we keep its best.
The newest model with a score here came out in Sep 2026, and nobody has tested a newer one. Among the 20 highest-ranked models on the capability index, these have no score yet:
- Claude Opus 5.5
- GPT-6.1 Terra
- GPT-6.1 Sol
- Claude Sonnet 5.5
- and 10 more
- 1 Claude Opus 5 xhigh 0.12
- 2 GPT-5.5 high 0.13
- 3 Claude Opus 4.8 xhigh 0.13
- 4 Claude Fable 5 high 0.13
- 5 Claude Sonnet 5 xhigh 0.14
- 6 GPT-5.6 Sol high 0.14
- 7
Muse Spark 1.3 xhigh 0.14 - 8 GPT-6 Astra low 0.14
- 9 GLM-5.3 unknown thinking 0.15
- 10 GLM-5.3-Flash 0.15
| # | Model | Score | Setting | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude Opus 5 | 0.12 | xhigh, FutureSearch agent | Jul 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 2 | GPT-5.5 | 0.13 | high, Vendor agent SDK | Apr 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 3 | Claude Opus 4.8 | 0.13 | xhigh, FutureSearch agent | May 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 4 | Claude Fable 5 | 0.13 | high, FutureSearch agent | Jun 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 5 | Claude Sonnet 5 | 0.14 | xhigh, FutureSearch agent | Jun 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 6 | GPT-5.6 Sol | 0.14 | high, FutureSearch agent | Jul 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 7 | Muse Spark 1.3 | 0.14 | xhigh, FutureSearch agent | Sep 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 8 | GPT-6 Astra | 0.14 | low, FutureSearch agent | Sep 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 9 | GLM-5.3 | 0.15 | unknown thinking, FutureSearch agent | Aug 2026 | Epoch AI |
| 10 | GLM-5.3-Flash | 0.15 | FutureSearch agent | Aug 2026 | Epoch AI |
2 models have held number one since its release in Jun 2026
Lab claims count from the day the card came out, independent runs from the model’s release.
Scores over time
All the scores we have, one dot each, so a model tested at several settings appears more than once.
No lab model card reports it yet
We read the headline results of 479 launch posts from 51 labs, and none of them list this benchmark.
Versions
More in Forecasting
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Gemini 4 Argon 80.6 - BackSearch Not in model cards Paid API that searches a frozen web archive as of a given date, for forecasting backtests and reproducible web-enabled evals. A tool, not a benchmark.
- BallotBench Not in model cards Nine frontier agents forecast 863 contests in the 2026 US midterms each day until polls close. Proper scoring rules grade forecasts against certified results, beside Kalshi, Polymarket and expert ratings.